Make Your Change a Success With The Futures Wheel
Getting a Bird's-Eye View of the Impact of Change

Have you ever had to deal with unexpected consequences of a change you thought you'd fully prepared for?

And if you have a big change coming your way, how can you be sure you understand its full impact?

You can capture the consequences of your change from a wider perspective (and avoid getting caught out by the unexpected) with the Futures Wheel.

The Futures Wheel [1]

The Futures Wheel was created to identify the potential consequences of trends and events, but it can also be used in decision making and change management.

Use this tool to identify your change's immediate consequences, and to better understand what may happen further down the line after your change occurs.

So how do you draw a Futures Wheel?

1. Identify the Change.

Write the change that you need to consider in the center of a piece of paper.

2. Identify Direct Consequences.

Brainstorm the possible direct consequences of this change. These are "first-order" consequences.

3. Identify Indirect Consequences.

Now brainstorm possible consequences of the first-order consequences. These are "second-order consequences."

Repeat this by identifying the third-order consequences, and so on. You'll find that there'll be a point at which this process will naturally come to a close. You can then move to the next step.

4. Analyze Implications.

Once completed, you'll have a clear picture of the possible direct and indirect consequences of the change. Consider the risk of each.

5. Identify Actions.

Where the possible consequences are negative, think about how you'll manage them. Where the consequences are positive, think about how you'll take full advantage of them.


References
[1] Glenn, J. C. (1972). 'Futurizing Teaching vs. Futures Course,' Social Science Record, Syracuse University, 9(3), 26-29. Reproduced with permission from Jerome Glenn.


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