Make Great Decisions in Five Logical Steps, With the Ladder of Inference

Have you ever made a decision that turned out to be based on faulty assumptions?

To reach the right conclusion, your decisions need to be based on solid information.

The trouble is, we're often under pressure to act now, instead of spending time reasoning things through.

But if you can understand your thinking steps, it's easier to base your conclusions on reality.

When you reason from facts to a conclusion, you're "climbing a ladder of inference," whether you're doing this consciously or not.

You can use each rung to question the stages of your decision making.

Taking Action.
Adopting Beliefs.
Forming Conclusions.
Making Assumptions.
Interpreting Reality.
Selecting Reality.
Observing Reality. [1]

1. Whenever you are in your decision-making process, stop! It's time to consider your reasoning.

2. Identify which rung of the ladder you've reached.

3. Question the choices you made to get here. WHAT were you thinking and WHY? Work your way down the ladder, analyzing your thought process at each rung.

Why have I chosen this course of action? (Taking Action)
What beliefs led to this action? (Adopting Beliefs)
Why did I draw this conclusion? (Forming Conclusions)
What am I assuming, and why? (Making Assumptions)
Why have I understood the situation this way? (Interpreting Reality)
What facts have I chosen to use and why? (Selecting Reality)
What are the real facts that I should be using? (Observing Reality)

4. When you've reached the bottom of the ladder, you know which facts you can rely on.

5. Now work your way back up the ladder, using the right facts, to reach the right conclusion! 
References

[1] Argyrus, C. (1990). 'Overcoming Organizational Defenses: Facilitating Organizational Learning,' Prentice Hall (Pearson).


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